Selected article for: "doubling time and time calendar"
Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: hsgzkpg4_6
    Snippet: Suppose the data at hand is the cumulative deaths Λ D (t), starting some calendar time t 0 and ending at t 1 at which still only a small community fraction has been infected. As a rule of thumb we define "early stage" by meaning that no more than 10% of the community have been infected. Mathematical theory, as well as empirical evidence for many infectious diseases, suggest that Λ D (t) grows approximately according to an exponential rate meani.....
    Document: Suppose the data at hand is the cumulative deaths Λ D (t), starting some calendar time t 0 and ending at t 1 at which still only a small community fraction has been infected. As a rule of thumb we define "early stage" by meaning that no more than 10% of the community have been infected. Mathematical theory, as well as empirical evidence for many infectious diseases, suggest that Λ D (t) grows approximately according to an exponential rate meaning that Λ D (t) ≈ const * e rt for some rate factor r. The exponential rate factor r relates to the more commonly used and easy-to-estimate doubling-time d by the relation r = ln(2)/d.

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