Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_7
Snippet: The growth of Λ D (t) will continue in the same manner until either some intervention is put in place, or until a significant community fraction have been infected. Here we consider predictions up until, say, 10% have become infected. Before this population immunity is very marginal. As a consequence, unless additional preventive measures are put in place, a very natural prediction of the cumulative number of deaths some date t after the final o.....
Document: The growth of Λ D (t) will continue in the same manner until either some intervention is put in place, or until a significant community fraction have been infected. Here we consider predictions up until, say, 10% have become infected. Before this population immunity is very marginal. As a consequence, unless additional preventive measures are put in place, a very natural prediction of the cumulative number of deaths some date t after the final observation point t 1 is given bŷ
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