A framework for the study of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers: spillover of bat pathogens as a case study

Wood, James L. N.; Leach, Melissa; Waldman, Linda; MacGregor, Hayley; Fooks, Anthony R.; Jones, Kate E.; Restif, Olivier; Dechmann, Dina; Hayman, David T. S.; Baker, Kate S.; Peel, Alison J.; Kamins, Alexandra O.; Fahr, Jakob; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa; Suu-Ire, Richard; Breiman, Robert F.; Epstein, Jonathan H.; Field, Hume E.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

A new holistic paradigm integrating biological, social and environmental science approaches is required to explain the mechanisms and impacts of zoonotic emergence, particularly through intermediate hosts. Novel mathematical frameworks have highlighted how chance events in viral evolution and transmission can lead to successful spillover [26, 43] . Ecological models for zoonotic emergence are still very patchy [26, 27] and need further development. Together, mathematical ecology and epidemiology provide mechanistic frameworks to study the dynamics of infections in bat reservoir populations [44] . Social science perspectives, especially from anthropology, are needed to elucidate how people perceive and interact with bats. Environmental science and modelling are necessary for addressing the ecological drivers of change that may impact on bat populations and hence spillover risk. Public health, social science and science-policy perspectives are important to consider how these diseases may be diagnosed, or continue undetected in humans, how policies and responses are framed and the political-economic interests that might influence this. This combination of disciplines needs to be carefully integrated in a manner that has not really been achieved for the study of any disease, let alone a wildlife-associated zoonosis. Here, the central involvement of bat conservation organizations could also enable synergies between science and policy and provide clear pathways to impact.