Author: Qingyang Xu; Shomesh Chaudhuri; Danying Xiao; Andrew W Lo
Title: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti-Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 20hk99h4_41
Snippet: On the other hand, when the therapeutic is effective ( 1), as increases from 2 to 4, the average sample size required by the Bayesian adaptive RCT decreases from 148 to 78 (Columns 9 and 10 of Table 3 ). The Bayesian adaptive model places more weight on approving an effective therapeutic earlier to prevent future infections when the epidemic is more infectious. Despite the smaller sample size, the model still retains an empirical power above 91.0.....
Document: On the other hand, when the therapeutic is effective ( 1), as increases from 2 to 4, the average sample size required by the Bayesian adaptive RCT decreases from 148 to 78 (Columns 9 and 10 of Table 3 ). The Bayesian adaptive model places more weight on approving an effective therapeutic earlier to prevent future infections when the epidemic is more infectious. Despite the smaller sample size, the model still retains an empirical power above 91.0% for all values of (Column 12). The Bayesian adaptive model simultaneously expedites the approval of an effective therapeutic and retains a bounded false-negative rate. The results are illustrated in Figure 2 .
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