Author: Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Junkai Zhu; Yuhao Zhu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Liuling Zhou; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: adcptyfj_19
Snippet: Phase three: as the intensity of policy intervention increases, the spread of COVID-19 is effectively suppressed, and growth rate of confirmed cases is gradually controlled until the end of the epidemic. The main feature of this phase is a strong human intervention. It is crucial to get as much information as possible from the data in three stages. Because this paper aims at the analysis of the peak size and its arrival time in each country or re.....
Document: Phase three: as the intensity of policy intervention increases, the spread of COVID-19 is effectively suppressed, and growth rate of confirmed cases is gradually controlled until the end of the epidemic. The main feature of this phase is a strong human intervention. It is crucial to get as much information as possible from the data in three stages. Because this paper aims at the analysis of the peak size and its arrival time in each country or region, two latter transmission phases will be our focus in this paper. In phase two, SEIR will be used to analyze the trend of the epidemic, while in phase three, the simulation of policy intervention will be carried out in combination with the prior information of China studied in [14] .
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