Author: Asami Anzai; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Natalie M. Linton; Ryo Kinoshita; Katsuma Hayashi; Ayako Suzuki; Yichi Yang; Sungmok Jung; Takeshi Miyama; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov; Hiroshi Nishiura
Title: Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: j1yqn9xg_39
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897 doi: medRxiv preprint epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. When the volume of exported cases outside China was considered to have been reduced by 70.4% the probability of a major epidemic was estimated to be reduced by 7-20% in Japan, and 2-day delay was gained in the estimated time to a major epidemic betwe.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897 doi: medRxiv preprint epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. When the volume of exported cases outside China was considered to have been reduced by 70.4% the probability of a major epidemic was estimated to be reduced by 7-20% in Japan, and 2-day delay was gained in the estimated time to a major epidemic between Day 58 and Day 67.
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