Author: Asami Anzai; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Natalie M. Linton; Ryo Kinoshita; Katsuma Hayashi; Ayako Suzuki; Yichi Yang; Sungmok Jung; Takeshi Miyama; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov; Hiroshi Nishiura
Title: Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: j1yqn9xg_40
Snippet: The reduced volume of exported cases was estimated to be as large as 226 cases outside China. Our estimate is consistent with an assessment by Chinazzi et al. [19] , which indicated that the exported cases would be reduced by 80% by the end of February. In addition to appropriately quantifying the impact on prevention of exported cases, we have estimated the median time delay to a major epidemic assuming plausible values of R0 at 1.5, 2.2, and 3......
Document: The reduced volume of exported cases was estimated to be as large as 226 cases outside China. Our estimate is consistent with an assessment by Chinazzi et al. [19] , which indicated that the exported cases would be reduced by 80% by the end of February. In addition to appropriately quantifying the impact on prevention of exported cases, we have estimated the median time delay to a major epidemic assuming plausible values of R0 at 1.5, 2.2, and 3.7. With reduced probability of a major epidemic, the time delay to a major epidemic was estimated at a maximum of 2 days in Japan and a minimum of less than 1 day. The estimated effect of the delay to a major epidemic outside China is smaller than what was anticipated for cities in China other than Wuhan. Tian et al. [20] estimated that the reduction in travel volume led to a 2.9-day delay in the spatial spread in China. To our knowledge, the present study is the first to have used simple stochastic process models to explicitly estimate the time delay to a major epidemic in Japan that gained by the drastic reduction in travel volume in and outside China.
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