Author: de Silva, Eric; Ferguson, Neil M.; Fraser, Christophe
Title: Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data Document date: 2012_8_7
ID: 1piyoafd_35
Snippet: The black curve in figure 2 shows the number of infected individuals, and thus the number of sequences generated, under a range of reproduction numbers and dispersion parameters. In all the plots, stochastic variation is visible during the early part of the epidemic. As expected, the growth rates become progressively higher for higher R-values. Additionally, the number of extinction events (runs in which the simulated population dies out in the f.....
Document: The black curve in figure 2 shows the number of infected individuals, and thus the number of sequences generated, under a range of reproduction numbers and dispersion parameters. In all the plots, stochastic variation is visible during the early part of the epidemic. As expected, the growth rates become progressively higher for higher R-values. Additionally, the number of extinction events (runs in which the simulated population dies out in the first few generations owing to no more offspring) is greatest for the low R, low k parameter combinations (R ¼ 1.5, k ¼ 0.1). Table 1 summarizes details of these simulations and table 2 results from the Bayesian analysis.
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