Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_117
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint under realistic conditions. Thirdly, predictions of the end of the epidemic vary 746 widely because of the basic assumption in some SIR type of models that if most of 747 the population is infected and recovered (and hence acquired immunity) or dead 748 (and hence no longer infectious). The concept of "herd immunity" is rooted in the 749 idea that with enough of the popul.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint under realistic conditions. Thirdly, predictions of the end of the epidemic vary 746 widely because of the basic assumption in some SIR type of models that if most of 747 the population is infected and recovered (and hence acquired immunity) or dead 748 (and hence no longer infectious). The concept of "herd immunity" is rooted in the 749 idea that with enough of the population acquiring immunity this way (or from a 750 vaccine if one is developed in time), the susceptible population is reduced to 751 S < b /a , and the rate of increase of I will turn negative. This will require as much as 752 70%-90% of the population be infected, a huge number. Modern models take into 753 account of the effect of quarantine and isolation in reducing the number of people 754 each infected can contact, thus reducing the infection rate a, so that S does not have 755 to be reduced to such an extent for the epidemic to peak and I starts to decrease. 756
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- decrease start and huge number: 1
- decrease start and infection rate: 1, 2
- epidemic end and herd immunity: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
- epidemic end and herd immunity concept: 1, 2
- epidemic end and increase rate: 1
- epidemic end and infection rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24
- epidemic end and infection rate reduce: 1, 2
- epidemic end and isolation quarantine: 1
- herd immunity and immunity acquire: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- herd immunity and increase rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- herd immunity and infection rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- herd immunity and infection rate reduce: 1
- herd immunity and isolation quarantine: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
- herd immunity and model SIR type: 1, 2, 3, 4
- herd immunity concept and immunity acquire: 1
- huge number and increase rate: 1
- huge number and infection rate: 1, 2, 3
- huge number and isolation quarantine: 1
- immunity acquire and increase rate: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date