Mechanisms for lyssavirus persistence in non-synanthropic bats in Europe: insights from a modeling study

Colombi, Davide; Serra-Cobo, Jordi; Métras, Raphaëlle; Apolloni, Andrea; Poletto, Chiara; López-Roig, Marc; Bourhy, Hervé; Colizza, Vittoria

While estimates are yielded from relatively small sample sizes, they are rather consistent across the 5 years of the study and with the estimates obtained from previous portions of the long-term survey 2-4 . Positive animals were found every year, except in 2014 when only one animal of the M. myotis species was sampled. Also, sampling rates are compatible with other field surveys in Europe 5-7 . Model 1 assumes the following transmission dynamics: infected bats become exposed ( ), then infectious ( ) and able to transmit the disease, and recover with rate . After an average immunity period !! , they become again susceptible. Disease progression is mathematically described by the following equations, written in deterministic continuous differential equations for sake of simplicity. Simulations are instead discrete and stochastic (see Section 3). Here we consider a frequency-dependent transmission.