Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

In Section 2 we initially present the data sources and the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases for this study and then briefly provide the approaches of Bayesian model selection and realization algorithms. In Section 3 we verify the validity of the model selection algorithm introduced in Section 2. In Section 4 based on the real data sets for 2009 A/H1N1 in Shaanxi Province of mainland China and the data sets for current Ebola infection in West Africa, we select the optimal model and examine the specifics of the corresponding diseases. In particular, we focus on estimating basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size of A/H1N1 and Ebola and then explain some important issues related to the emerging infection disease control. Finally, we conclude by summarizing important conclusions and emphasizing the importance of model selection.