Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi

The first case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was detected in Guinea in December 2013. Within months, the disease had spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and other countries [1, 2] . The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified officially of the rapid evolution of the EVD outbreak on March 23, 2014 [3] . A total of 26,277 EVD cases and 10,884 EVD-related deaths were reported from December 2013 to April 29, 2015 [4] . EVD was transmitted by direct and indirect contact between people. The mean incubation period was 11.4 days, and typical symptoms included fever, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and generalized pain [5] [6] [7] . The case fatality rate in the 2014 EVD outbreak was approximately 64% among patients who received treatment, and approximately 71% among all known infected patients [3] . The spread of the EVD outbreak was overwhelming and posed a serious threat to public health in Africa due to the high infection rate of EVD, ineffective control measures during the early-onset stage, local funeral customs, and weak epidemic prevention measures [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] .