Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi

Assuming that no control and prevention measures were taken, understanding the effects of an unchecked EVD outbreak on the total population number would help us better appreciate how harmful EVD has the potential to be. Using an SIR model, we found that the population would be dramatically decreased in a short time in the absence of control and prevention measures. These results support an overwhelming risk from an EVD outbreak. The SIR model also indicated that the s, i, and r populations fluctuate periodically around their dynamic equilibrium points. These results support the idea EVD epidemics may break out periodically, though the disease will reach a dynamic equilibrium point with a shorter period between epidemics of progressively weaker intensity. Periodic fluctuations of EVD epidemics are similar to those of other diseases, such as the measles and chickenpox [24, 25] . Therefore, we should be vigilant for the reemergence of EVD.