Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi

Taking timely measures to control and prevent infection during small outbreaks is important for maintaining local control and preventing larger outbreaks. Previous studies have shown that strict isolation and quarantine, scientific management of corpses, public health education knowledge, and good personal hygiene habits are effective means of controlling and preventing the perpetuation of infectious diseases [27, 28] . Similarly, we found that the outbreak and spread of EVD could be controlled effectively through isolating patients early, quickly removing corpses, practicing "safe" sex after recovery, and strictly monitoring for imported cases. EVD patients were first reported in Guinea and then rapidly spread to neighboring countries that failed to prevent and manage imported cases effectively [1] . Preventing imported cases is a major way that countries can protect themselves from infectious disease. However, if imported cases do reach a country, an epidemic can still be prevented by rapidly implementing control and prevention measures. For example, several countries, including the USA and Spain, had imported EVD cases [29] , but outbreaks were controlled successfully due to the timely isolation of cases and careful monitoring of close patient contacts.