Author: Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli
Title: Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: bf098qcr_31
Snippet: Our results show that the lockdown lowers the peak of O -i.e. the individuals with noticeable symptoms -to ∼ 70% of the free epidemic one, but also doubles its occurrence time from ∼ 1.9 months to ∼ 3.8 months, thus an extremely obnoxious effect for the sustainability conditions of the economy of a country. Moreover, since the number of hospitalized patients is a fraction of O, much less stress is put on the healthcare system. We can decide.....
Document: Our results show that the lockdown lowers the peak of O -i.e. the individuals with noticeable symptoms -to ∼ 70% of the free epidemic one, but also doubles its occurrence time from ∼ 1.9 months to ∼ 3.8 months, thus an extremely obnoxious effect for the sustainability conditions of the economy of a country. Moreover, since the number of hospitalized patients is a fraction of O, much less stress is put on the healthcare system. We can decide to lift the lockdown after the observed people O have dropped to a suitable percentage of the maximum peak; as an example, after ∼ 4.7 months the peak has reduced to 70% of its initial value, while after ∼ 5.2 months to 50%, i.e. ∼ 0.5 months later. Notice that, the earlier the lockdown is lifted, the faster O decays to zero even if it starts from higher. All such effects are shown in Fig. 3 .
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