Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_16
Snippet: We modeled Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission using a stochastic branching process model, parameterized by transmission rates estimated from the dynamics of prior EVD outbreaks and conditioned on agreement with reported case counts from the 2018 EVD outbreak to date. We incorporated high and low estimates of vaccination coverage into this model. We used this model to generate a set of probabilistic projections of the size of simulated outbreaks in t.....
Document: We modeled Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission using a stochastic branching process model, parameterized by transmission rates estimated from the dynamics of prior EVD outbreaks and conditioned on agreement with reported case counts from the 2018 EVD outbreak to date. We incorporated high and low estimates of vaccination coverage into this model. We used this model to generate a set of probabilistic projections of the size of simulated outbreaks in the current setting. This model is similar to one described in previous work [16] , with the addition of a smoothing step allowing for a continuum of transmission rates interpolated between those estimated from prior outbreaks.
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