Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is an alphacoronavirus and has circulated in Asian and European swine since 1971 with documented emergence of the virus into the Iowa swine industry in May 2013 where it rapidly spread to many North American locations [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] . The PEDV circulating in North American swineherds is highly pathogenic especially in non-immune, suckling piglets in which it causes watery, hemorrhagic diarrhea and sometimes vomiting with up to 100% morbidity creating a significant economic impact for the swine industry [6] [7] [8] [9] . In older, weaned pigs, the disease causes similar symptoms along with anorexia, and lethargy and morbidity remains high (up to 90%), however mortality is significantly reduced with between zero and four percent of animals dying as a result of the infection [6, 9, 10] . It is also thought that the reproductive performance of PEDV infected animals is reduced resulting in smaller litter sizes [11] .