Selected article for: "case case and chain probability"
Author: Cauchemez, Simon; Epperson, Scott; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Swerdlow, David; Finelli, Lyn; Ferguson, Neil M.
Title: Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus
  • Document date: 2013_3_5
    • ID: 16c8dwfq_18
    Snippet: We now consider surveillance scenario 2 (i.e., detection of a case may trigger an outbreak investigation). We only use data from the first detected case of each cluster to control for the change in surveillance intensity due to the outbreak investigation. We first make the stricter assumption that each cluster is made of one chain of transmission, but this assumption is relaxed in Figure S1 and Text S1. Conditional on detection of the chain, the .....
    Document: We now consider surveillance scenario 2 (i.e., detection of a case may trigger an outbreak investigation). We only use data from the first detected case of each cluster to control for the change in surveillance intensity due to the outbreak investigation. We first make the stricter assumption that each cluster is made of one chain of transmission, but this assumption is relaxed in Figure S1 and Text S1. Conditional on detection of the chain, the probability F that the first detected case was the first case of the chain is:

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