Inference and control of the nosocomial transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Pei, Sen; Morone, Flaviano; Liljeros, Fredrik; Makse, Hernán; Shaman, Jeffrey L

For the opposite situation in which nosocomial transmission is less than importation, we performed the same test. In this case, we set b ¼ 6 Â 10 À3 , I 0 ¼ 2 Â 10 À3 and C 0 ¼ 7:5 Â 10 À2 . The distributions of posterior parameters after each iteration (blue boxes) shown in Figure 2 figure supplement 2A are gradually adjusted to their targets (red horizontal lines). We ran 100 independent realizations of the inference, and report the inferred values and 95% CIs for the parameters b, I 0 and C 0 in Table 3 . Additionally, weekly incidence, colonized population, and nosocomial and imported infections can be generally reproduced with the inferred parameters (see We finally tested the effect of observation frequency. In the actual diagnostic data from the Swedish hospitals, weekly incidence is very low. To account for the large uncertainty in weekly observation, we instead use 4 week incidence. In Figure 2 and Figure 2 -figure supplement 2, we used weekly observations; in Figure 2 -figure supplement 4, we assimilated 4 week incidence for a synthetic outbreak generated with the same parameter setting as in Figure 2 .