Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience

Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M.; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mills, Harriet L.; Blake, Isobel M.

Spatial heterogeneity in transmission is particularly interesting to assess as it can inform the targeting of surveillance and interventions to the geographical areas most at risk. Phylo-geographical studies based on genetic data can improve understanding of the geographical origins of the outbreak, identify and characterize sub-outbreaks and quantify whether transmission is very local or travels large distances [22, 62, 63] . Results of such analyses can be used to determine the appropriate spatial scale of control measures. Spatially explicit epidemic models can also be used to quantify the risk of exportation of the infection from one place to another. This can help public health officials to tailor prevention and control resources to the level of risk likely to be experienced by a given area. Such models typically require detailed data on mobility patterns and immunity levels of the populations in the areas of interest [64] [65] [66] .