Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 0fmeu4h4_45
Snippet: The model used was the simple SIR General epidemic model. This model only allows for heterogeneity in terms of infectiousness (when and how many to infect), but not in terms of susceptibility or mixing-patterns. To include such heterogeneities is of course important and often done (e.g. [5] , [3] ). The purpose of the present paper is however to keep things simple enough in order to make procedures more transparent. Another feature in the model t.....
Document: The model used was the simple SIR General epidemic model. This model only allows for heterogeneity in terms of infectiousness (when and how many to infect), but not in terms of susceptibility or mixing-patterns. To include such heterogeneities is of course important and often done (e.g. [5] , [3] ). The purpose of the present paper is however to keep things simple enough in order to make procedures more transparent. Another feature in the model that would make it more realistic is to include a latent state before becoming infectious by instead using SEIR models [4] .
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