Author: Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi
Title: Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures Document date: 2016_4_6
ID: 1amm2hh8_21
Snippet: One of the limitations of this study is that the epidemic data used were published by the WHO and were likely underreported due to the outdated public health system in West African countries. However, the WHO data are the most accurate data available at present. The constructed model fit and forecast epidemic trends accurately, evaluated the effects of control and prevention measures, and provided a scientific conclusion. In the SEIR model constr.....
Document: One of the limitations of this study is that the epidemic data used were published by the WHO and were likely underreported due to the outdated public health system in West African countries. However, the WHO data are the most accurate data available at present. The constructed model fit and forecast epidemic trends accurately, evaluated the effects of control and prevention measures, and provided a scientific conclusion. In the SEIR model constructed during the 1995 EVD outbreak, the values of the model's parameters were estimated based on stochastic process theory. However, in this study, the values of the model's parameters were determined based on references or were simulated using real data from the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak. Therefore, the results of this study would be expected to more reliable because the model conformed more closely to the real-world circumstances.
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