Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi

Effects of decontaminating the corpses of dead EVD patients on the epidemic trend of EVD Ebola virus is stored in human body fluids. Thus, to prevent the spread of disease, it is critical to take timely measures to decontaminate the corpses of dead EVD patients. Examples of these measures would include burning or deep burial. In contrast, the West African funeral custom of touching the corpses is prone to spreading the disease. The number of cumulative EVD cases could be decreased by shortening the interval between death and corpse decontamination Note that introduction of a new case every other day (0.5 cases/day, green) has a strong effect on amplitude relative to zero case importation (red). In all panels, the number of predicted EVD cases is plotted as a function of time. Effects of altering the time from symptom onset to treatment in isolation on the epidemic trend of EVD The average time from symptom onset to medical treatment in isolation for EVD patients is 5 days [3] . During this time, EVD patients have a high probability of infecting susceptible individuals. Early detection, diagnosis, and isolation can decrease the total number of EVD cases in an open environment, and early treatment can increase the EVD survival rate. A shorter interval between symptom onset and medical treatment in isolation led to fewer EVD cases and an earlier peak in the epidemic curve ( Fig 4C) . The dynamic model indicates that: if the average interval between symptom onset and treatment were shortened from 5 to 4 days (60% reduction) or 3 days (87% reduction), the number of EVD cases at the peak of the epidemic curve would be markedly decreased in amplitude, and shifted leftward to 16 or 40 days earlier, respectively.