Selected article for: "final size and outbreak final size"
Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019
  • Document date: 2019_8_5
    • ID: 1lg2203q_46
    Snippet: The possibility of a final outbreak size exceeding 1,000 cases was projected to be quite likely by all the models, with the Gott's rule forecast being particularly pessimistic, as it was in all cases. The probability of a very large outbreak (10,000 or more cases) was calculated to be below 8% for Gott's rule and negligibly small for the other models. A final outbreak size of a catastrophic outbreak larger than the West Africa outbreak (28,616 or.....
    Document: The possibility of a final outbreak size exceeding 1,000 cases was projected to be quite likely by all the models, with the Gott's rule forecast being particularly pessimistic, as it was in all cases. The probability of a very large outbreak (10,000 or more cases) was calculated to be below 8% for Gott's rule and negligibly small for the other models. A final outbreak size of a catastrophic outbreak larger than the West Africa outbreak (28,616 or more cases) was projected to have probability less than 3% by Gott's rule and negligibly small for the other models (S2 Table) .

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