Representative Contact Diaries for Modeling the Spread of Infectious Diseases in Taiwan

Fu, Yang-chih; Wang, Da-Wei; Chuang, Jen-Hsiang

Our attempt helps modify a sophisticated national simulation system that has been used for years to model the spread of pandemic diseases in Taiwan. The results brought by the new parameters also show noticeable differences from similar modeling based on data from the United States. Given the nature of disease infections, the simple diary-based approach shall continue to be the most comprehensive method to collect details about face-toface interpersonal contacts in everyday life. The difficulties of data collection may be eased by the use of more technically advanced methods, such as online surveys. Nonetheless, because such surveys tend to undersample technically disadvantaged groups (who may also be more or less vulnerable to disease infections), one should pay special attention to the validity of statistical inferences based on data collected from the use of such methods. More country-specific findings are expected as an increasing amount of comparable diary-based probability survey data becomes available from other countries. For example, preliminary analyses show that the Taiwanese have a different cross-generational pattern of interpersonal contact. While European diary-based studies reveal frequent interactions between children and adults about 30-40 years apart [1] [2] [3] [4] , Taiwan diaries show additional and noticeable interactions between age cohorts that are about 60 years apart.