Author: Wenlei Xiao; Qiang Liu; J Huan; Pengpeng Sun; Liuquan Wang; Chenxin Zang; Sanying Zhu; Liansheng Gao
Title: A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: 2v5wkjrq_18
Snippet: In 2003, a cybernetics-based model had been firstly proposed by the authors (Ji Huan and Qiang Liu), and successfully forecasted the spread of SARS in Beijing. Fig. 3 shows the SARS model that was used to estimate the confirmed cases in Beijing and the corresponding result. The spread of SARS epidemic can be represented in a very concise manner. The positive feedback path emulates the rapid reproductive process of the epidemic, while the negative.....
Document: In 2003, a cybernetics-based model had been firstly proposed by the authors (Ji Huan and Qiang Liu), and successfully forecasted the spread of SARS in Beijing. Fig. 3 shows the SARS model that was used to estimate the confirmed cases in Beijing and the corresponding result. The spread of SARS epidemic can be represented in a very concise manner. The positive feedback path emulates the rapid reproductive process of the epidemic, while the negative feedback represents the regulation effect from hospital (all patients are isolated at the moment of symptom onset). The result is give in Fig. 3(b) , the final confirmed cases fit well with the forecasted curve. At the early stage Nonetheless, there exists several basic differences in between SARS and SARS-COV-2:
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