Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

In response to the outbreak of Covid-19, a series of estimates of model parameters have been proposed in the literature. Nevertheless, they still show a certain amount of uncertainty about some fundamental variables of the epidemic contagion. Following extant literature [20, 21, 22, 23] , we use an infection time duration τ I ∼ 10 days and γ ∼ τ −1 I . Notice that, while the R 0 would vary linearly with τ I (i.e. R 0 ∈ [2.5, 4.5] for τ I ∈ [5, 15] , see Sec. 8.1), the scenarios are much less sensitive to such variations. Moreover, we consider an hospitalization period τ H ∼ 10 days to estimate h ∼ τ −1 H . Lastly, we estimate the attenuation α of the transmission parameter β by refitting the parameters in the post-lockdown time range.