Author: Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma
Title: Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model Document date: 2017_1_5
ID: 1g2ij37f_23
Snippet: Using case data from the post-feed recall time period (after February 19, 2014), the model showed excellent agreement with the reported outbreak data using all available generations from February 20 to April 30, 2014 and using a generation time estimate of 7 days (Fig. 2) . The best-fit estimate for R 0 was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.52 -2.34). The best-fit model estimate for the control parameter (d) was 0.059 (95% CI: 0.022 -0.117). Together these results.....
Document: Using case data from the post-feed recall time period (after February 19, 2014), the model showed excellent agreement with the reported outbreak data using all available generations from February 20 to April 30, 2014 and using a generation time estimate of 7 days (Fig. 2) . The best-fit estimate for R 0 was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.52 -2.34). The best-fit model estimate for the control parameter (d) was 0.059 (95% CI: 0.022 -0.117). Together these results suggest that the direct transmission period of the outbreak was not highly explosive (R 0 < 2.5) but was the focus of intensive and effective control measures (d > 0.05).
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