Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_8
Snippet: A very important quantity is how the number of infected people (n.b. not only reported!) increases over time, because this quantity carries information about how immunty builds up and when the growth rate will start declining due to partial population immunity. We hence let Λ I (t) denote the total number of infected individuals up until time t. This cumulative number is never observed. What can be observed is the cumulative number of reported c.....
Document: A very important quantity is how the number of infected people (n.b. not only reported!) increases over time, because this quantity carries information about how immunty builds up and when the growth rate will start declining due to partial population immunity. We hence let Λ I (t) denote the total number of infected individuals up until time t. This cumulative number is never observed. What can be observed is the cumulative number of reported cases, but since this number is very sensitive to testing procedures which may vary over time, we refrain from using this data and stick to the more reliable reported 2 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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