Author: Qingyang Xu; Shomesh Chaudhuri; Danying Xiao; Andrew W Lo
Title: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti-Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 20hk99h4_15
Snippet: A critical measure of the infectivity of an epidemic is its basic reproduction number, defined as / in the SEIR model. This is the expected number of secondary infections caused by each infected subject in a population with no public health measures (such as quarantine, social-distancing, or vaccination). In addition, to model the impact of governmental nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on containing the spread of the epidemic, we consider a.....
Document: A critical measure of the infectivity of an epidemic is its basic reproduction number, defined as / in the SEIR model. This is the expected number of secondary infections caused by each infected subject in a population with no public health measures (such as quarantine, social-distancing, or vaccination). In addition, to model the impact of governmental nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on containing the spread of the epidemic, we consider a dynamic transmission SEIR model where the infection rate monotonically decreases in time as a result of the NPI. Specifically, we assume that takes the sigmoid functional form:
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