H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Italy Revisited: Has the Willingness to Get Vaccinated Suffered in the Long Run?

Ludolph, Ramona; Nobile, Marta; Hartung, Uwe; Castaldi, Silvana; Schulz, Peter J.

We are faced with a slightly paradoxical result here. Willingness to seek the protection of vaccination in the next influenza pandemic was best predicted by similar behaviour in the past, but willingness was also much more prevalent than actual past behaviour. This highlights the fact that behavioural intention is not the same as behaviour, and the former cannot that easily be taken as an indicator of the latter. Willingness to get vaccinated can be considered something that precedes the formation of behavioural intention. One element that helps this formation is the consideration of circumstances, some aspects of which are included in this study. Based on the results, we can expect that widespread perception of a higher risk of death in case of infection with a future pandemic virus will lead to a higher vaccination rate, meaning that more of the willingness will be translated into behaviour. And the connection was there when H1N1 hit, only in opposite direction: when the vaccine had become available, it was clear that earlier fears of a high mortality of H1N1 were unjustified. Perception of the official handling of the pandemic is another potential criterion in people's considerations, but our data show that is not actually considered. This also makes sense, because if your life is at stake and you are given the chance to reduce the risk, it is quite irrelevant how much of the risk in a former comparable case originated from institutional performance. This suggests that the willingness we measured is less a willingness to act but rather a willingness to consider.