Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 0fmeu4h4_14
Snippet: Once we have calibrated our parameters λ and γ to R 0 and the observed initial doubling time d we simply use the GEM to predict the epidemic (assuming no preventive measure are put in place). Suppose the community size is N (assumed large) and that we start with a small fraction (but fairly large number) infected and the rest being susceptible, for example i 0 = 50 s 0 = N − 50, where s t and i t denote the number of susceptible and the numbe.....
Document: Once we have calibrated our parameters λ and γ to R 0 and the observed initial doubling time d we simply use the GEM to predict the epidemic (assuming no preventive measure are put in place). Suppose the community size is N (assumed large) and that we start with a small fraction (but fairly large number) infected and the rest being susceptible, for example i 0 = 50 s 0 = N − 50, where s t and i t denote the number of susceptible and the number of infectious individuals respectively (the index t is hence relative to the start of the epidemic and not calendar time). The transitions of the GEM are given by
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