A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China

Alberto Aleta; Qitong Hu; Jiachen Ye; Peng Ji; Yamir Moreno

Several studies predict a much larger number of infections than the actual number reported by the authorities, claiming that only between 10% and 20% of the cases have been detected and reported [6] [7] [8] [9] . The reasons for such deviations between models and actual count of cases are diverse, for instance, the fact that the symptoms could be mild and similar to other flue-like diseases for some people, may induce infected individuals not to seek medical care [10] . On the other hand, on Feb. 13th, 14,840 new cases were reported [11] , in contrast to 2,022 cases counted during the previous day [12] . The reason was that previously to that day, only those cases that had been laboratory-confirmed were being recognized as so, whereas from that date onwards, also the clinically diagnosed cases are accounted for. Therefore, the model-based prediction of the numbers of infected individuals can plausibly be larger than the official reports.