Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . In general, we can observe several effects. The first effect is related to the timeliness of the lockdown, i.e. to the choice of anticipating t Lock . As expected, early lockdown reduces the height of the peak without much moving it forward in time. Conversely, lifting the lockdown too soon can make epidemic start again and reach values even higher than the ones before the release. A very peculiar and counter-intuitive effect can be generated if the lockdown is anticipated: in fact, a too early lockdown has the effect of delaying the start of the epidemic without attenuating its severity (see Sec. 8.2). Hence, early lockdown buy us some time but do only postpone the problem.