Author: Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli
Title: Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: bf098qcr_65
Snippet: By increasing the strength α of the lockdown (where α is the ratio between the trasmission β after and before the lockdown) the height of the peak lowers but shifts to farther times. On the other hand, slowing down the epidemic implies that lifting the lockdown would bring back the infection. In the left panel of Fig. 7 , we show what happens by releasing the lockdown when the peak is fallen by 30%: stronger lockdowns induce a stronger reprise.....
Document: By increasing the strength α of the lockdown (where α is the ratio between the trasmission β after and before the lockdown) the height of the peak lowers but shifts to farther times. On the other hand, slowing down the epidemic implies that lifting the lockdown would bring back the infection. In the left panel of Fig. 7 , we show what happens by releasing the lockdown when the peak is fallen by 30%: stronger lockdowns induce a stronger reprise of the epidemic. An analogous effect can be observed by varying the lockdown time: anticipating the lockdown ameliorates the peak by decreasing its height, but shifts it to later time and retards the end of the epidemic.
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