Author: Moritz U. G. Kraemer; T. Alex Perkins; Derek A.T. Cummings; Rubeena Zakar; Simon I. Hay; David L. Smith; Robert C. Reiner
Title: Big city, small world: Density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan. Document date: 2015_4_27
ID: 8ilzm51q_32
Snippet: Our results point to considerable spatial heterogeneity in the extent of mixing and strength of 278 an associated nonlinearity in transmission along an urban-rural gradient. This regional 279 variability in mixing has direct implications for estimates of the basic reproductive number of 280 dengue in our study region and elsewhere. Although the potential for such bias in estimates of 281 the basic reproductive number has been shown in a theoretic.....
Document: Our results point to considerable spatial heterogeneity in the extent of mixing and strength of 278 an associated nonlinearity in transmission along an urban-rural gradient. This regional 279 variability in mixing has direct implications for estimates of the basic reproductive number of 280 dengue in our study region and elsewhere. Although the potential for such bias in estimates of 281 the basic reproductive number has been shown in a theoretical context (Hu et al. 2013; Perkins 282 et al. 2013) , we provide quantitative estimates of the extent of this problem in interfacing 283 models with a rich spatio-temporal data set. Such analyses have implications for estimates of 284 population-level parameters not only for dengue but also for other infectious diseases (Bartlett 285 1960; Keeling & Grenfell 1997; Bjørnstad et al. 2002; Smith et al. 2002; Keeling & Eames 286 2005; Kiss et al. 2008 ) and possibly even more broadly in ecology. 287
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