Selected article for: "case number and infection case"
Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: hsgzkpg4_39
    Snippet: One of our main conclusions is that any prediction of the number of infected, using data from cumulative case fatalities, rely heavily on accurate knowledge of the infection fatality risk f . Without accurate knowledge of f , the prediction of the total case fatality once the epidemic outbreak is over, is equipped with a similar multiplicative uncertainty. It is hence of utmost importance to obtain more accurate estimates of f . The best way to o.....
    Document: One of our main conclusions is that any prediction of the number of infected, using data from cumulative case fatalities, rely heavily on accurate knowledge of the infection fatality risk f . Without accurate knowledge of f , the prediction of the total case fatality once the epidemic outbreak is over, is equipped with a similar multiplicative uncertainty. It is hence of utmost importance to obtain more accurate estimates of f . The best way to obtain such estimates, now that seroprevalence tests are becoming available, is to conduct tests on a random sample of a community in which the outbreak is (close to) over. f is then simply estimated as the ratio of the total number of case fatalities and the estimated population number of people testing positive.

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