Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_42
Snippet: The methodology presented used cumulative reported deaths as the main data source. A problem with this data is that there is a delay of about 3 weeks from getting infected to dying (for those who die). As a consequence, there is a more than 3 week delay before effects of interventions may be estimated. The same methodology can be used for data on cumulative number of patients having received intensive care (IC) treatment. The time from getting in.....
Document: The methodology presented used cumulative reported deaths as the main data source. A problem with this data is that there is a delay of about 3 weeks from getting infected to dying (for those who die). As a consequence, there is a more than 3 week delay before effects of interventions may be estimated. The same methodology can be used for data on cumulative number of patients having received intensive care (IC) treatment. The time from getting infected to the start of IC treatment (for those who need it) is around 2 weeks, thus making the delay shorter. This must be weighted against the often lower quality data for IC treatment as compared to reported deaths.
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