Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_3
Snippet: (7-10). Modeling the epidemic as it develops has been difficult (1) . Depending on 59 the model assumptions, predictions of when it "turns a corner" for China varies 60 greatly (11-21), up to after 650 million people have been infected before peaking; 61 many have now been shown to be inaccurate (22) . Now as the epidemic has 62 subsided in China and become a global pandemic (23, 24), a reliable forecast of the 63 course of the outbreak in each r.....
Document: (7-10). Modeling the epidemic as it develops has been difficult (1) . Depending on 59 the model assumptions, predictions of when it "turns a corner" for China varies 60 greatly (11-21), up to after 650 million people have been infected before peaking; 61 many have now been shown to be inaccurate (22) . Now as the epidemic has 62 subsided in China and become a global pandemic (23, 24), a reliable forecast of the 63 course of the outbreak in each region is critical for the management and 64 containment of the epidemic, and for balancing the impact from the public health 65 crisis vs the economic crisis. China has instituted some of the strictest quarantine 66 measures around Wuhan and Hubei, which may or may not be adoptable in other 67 countries (25-27). It would be useful to extract the dependence of the epidemic's 68 evolution on the degree of quarantine to guide policy decisions, while also to 69 characterize properties of Covid-19 that are applicable to other countries. 70 71
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