Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_55
Snippet: Prediction of the turning point using NR ratio. 297 We first discuss how the true turning point can be determined from data after it has 298 occurred. Then we give a method for predicting this true value in advance and 299 assess the accuracy of the forecasts as function of days in advance when the 300 prediction is made. A note: after this manuscript was submitted for review the 301 predictions that we made previously have come to pass. Although.....
Document: Prediction of the turning point using NR ratio. 297 We first discuss how the true turning point can be determined from data after it has 298 occurred. Then we give a method for predicting this true value in advance and 299 assess the accuracy of the forecasts as function of days in advance when the 300 prediction is made. A note: after this manuscript was submitted for review the 301 predictions that we made previously have come to pass. Although consequently the 302 value of our predictions has greatly diminished, it gives us a chance to compare our 303 predictions against the truths. This model validation process is important if we are 304 to apply the same method for prediction to other regions. 305 306
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