Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

To understand the effects of model's parameter, but also of introducing several heterogeneities in the modelling, we consider several scenarios. First, we analyze the effects of lockdown starting time and lockdown intensity on the post-exit dynamics in the simple case of a SIOR model fitted on Italian data. Then, we study the effect of considering Italy as a collection of separate administrative entities (Italian regions) independently evolving; last, we consider the effects of social interactions through different age classes. We want to point out since the beginning that mobility flows [18] and inter-age social mixing [24] lie at the two opposite range of modelling. In fact, the regional social contact matrix is dense (Fig. 2 , left panel), indicating that age classes dynamics are strongly coupled. On the other hand, the inter-regional mobility matrix is very sparse (Fig. 2 , right panel), indicating that regions have essentially independent dynamics. This can be seen as an example of the decomposability conditions under which partial 6 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.