Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

We first normalize the observed data by dividing the number of non-zero observations in a region for the population of the region. Let y i be the normalized observations for the i th region. For each pair of regions i, j, we define the variation interval ∆ ij = [min ij , max ij ] that contains the maximum number of points of both y i and y j , i.e. min ij = max{min(y i ), min(y j )} and max ij = min{max(y i ), max(y j )}. The delay t ij between the epidemics start in i and j, respectively, is calculated by minimizing the square norm of (∆ ij ∩ y i (t)) \ (∆ ij ∩ y j (t − t ij ) , where ∆ ij ∩ y denotes the values of y falling in the interval ∆ ij . Denoting with T i the times corresponding to the observation in 23 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.