Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_22
Snippet: The procedure described above can be reversed, thus enabling estimation of the preventive effect Ï as follows. Suppose that the exponential growth was observed to equal r prior to preventive measures and that, once preventive measure have been put in place the growth rate declined to r E . If measured by reduced cumulative death rates we emphasize that this can only be estimated s d days after the measure has been put in place (or preferably a b.....
Document: The procedure described above can be reversed, thus enabling estimation of the preventive effect Ï as follows. Suppose that the exponential growth was observed to equal r prior to preventive measures and that, once preventive measure have been put in place the growth rate declined to r E . If measured by reduced cumulative death rates we emphasize that this can only be estimated s d days after the measure has been put in place (or preferably a bit later). From this it is possible to estimate Ï by simply inverting the procedure. As before we assume that an estimate of R 0 is also available and as before we obtain two bounds using relation (1) and (2) . The resulting bounds are
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