Author: Qingyang Xu; Shomesh Chaudhuri; Danying Xiao; Andrew W Lo
Title: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti-Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 20hk99h4_39
Snippet: We first analyze the case when the infectivity remains constant in time (e.g. in the absence of effective NPIs). For the fixed-sample Bayesian RCT on a non-vaccine anti-infective therapeutic, as increases from 2 to 4 (Rows 1 to 2 of Table 3 ), the optimal sample size of each experimental arm decreases from 242 to 152 and the optimal Type I error rate drastically increases from 7.1% to 17.3% (Figure 1 ), much higher than the traditional 5% thresho.....
Document: We first analyze the case when the infectivity remains constant in time (e.g. in the absence of effective NPIs). For the fixed-sample Bayesian RCT on a non-vaccine anti-infective therapeutic, as increases from 2 to 4 (Rows 1 to 2 of Table 3 ), the optimal sample size of each experimental arm decreases from 242 to 152 and the optimal Type I error rate drastically increases from 7.1% to 17.3% (Figure 1 ), much higher than the traditional 5% threshold. As the epidemic spreads across the population more rapidly, the Bayesian RCT model has greater pressure to expedite the approval process and a much higher tolerance of false positive outcomes.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- epidemic population spread and population spread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63
- epidemic population spread and rapidly epidemic population spread: 1, 2
- error rate and positive outcome: 1, 2, 3, 4
- error rate and sample size: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- experimental arm and sample size: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- false positive outcome and positive outcome: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- great pressure and population spread: 1
- non vaccine anti infective therapeutic and sample size: 1
- population spread and positive outcome: 1
- population spread and rapidly epidemic population spread: 1, 2
- population spread and sample size: 1, 2
- positive outcome and sample size: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- RCT model and sample size: 1, 2, 3
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date