Author: Klotz, Lynn C.
Title: Comments on Fouchier’s Calculation of Risk and Elapsed Time for Escape of a Laboratory-Acquired Infection from His Laboratory Document date: 2015_4_14
ID: 7lh8iqm1_10
Snippet: Summarizing the literature, Lipsitch and Inglesby (7) estimate the probability that a community LAI leads to a global spread (pandemic) to be 5 to 60%. This range is consistent with the 5 to 15% range found by Merler and coworkers (8) and with the 1 to 30% range found in a focused risk assessment (9) for infection spread beginning on crowded public transportation. As an illustration, using an intermediate value of 10% for pandemic probability, wh.....
Document: Summarizing the literature, Lipsitch and Inglesby (7) estimate the probability that a community LAI leads to a global spread (pandemic) to be 5 to 60%. This range is consistent with the 5 to 15% range found by Merler and coworkers (8) and with the 1 to 30% range found in a focused risk assessment (9) for infection spread beginning on crowded public transportation. As an illustration, using an intermediate value of 10% for pandemic probability, which is within the estimated ranges, the probability that a community LAI occurs and leads to a pandemic would be 0.0003 Ï« 0.1 Ï 3 Ï« 10 -5 .
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