Comments on Fouchier’s Calculation of Risk and Elapsed Time for Escape of a Laboratory-Acquired Infection from His Laboratory

Klotz, Lynn C.

There are valuable observations to be gleaned from Table 1 . For instance, taking into account the whole research enterprise, not just a single lab, is important. Furthermore, even for Fouchier's very low value for P 1 , there is an estimated probability of E Ï­ 0.0003 that there will be at least one community LAI over a 10-year period for 30 labs (likely exactly one LAI, as two is much less probable). As I will soon show, E Ï­ 0.0003, or 0.03%, is not nearly small enough to reduce risk to an acceptable level. Also, this E value assumes that all 30 laboratories involved in this research enterprise have the rigorous safety practices of Fouchier's lab, a highly unlikely assumption.