A Strategy To Estimate Unknown Viral Diversity in Mammals

Anthony, Simon J.; Epstein, Jonathan H.; Murray, Kris A.; Navarrete-Macias, Isamara; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos M.; Solovyov, Alexander; Ojeda-Flores, Rafael; Arrigo, Nicole C.; Islam, Ariful; Ali Khan, Shahneaz; Hosseini, Parviez; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Olival, Kevin J.; Sanchez-Leon, Maria D.; Karesh, William B.; Goldstein, Tracey; Luby, Stephen P.; Morse, Stephen S.; Mazet, Jonna A. K.; Daszak, Peter; Lipkin, W. Ian

Conclusions. Our work illustrates the power of using ecological approaches to characterize virodiversity and estimate viral richness and can be considered part of a strategy to better target surveillance to identify agents that pose zoonotic risks before they emerge in people (3). The projected $1.4 billion cost of discovering 85% of the estimated diversity is far less than the economic impact of even a single pandemic like SARS, which has been estimated at $16 Billion (47) . If annualized over a 10-year period, the discovery of 85% of mammalian viral diversity would be just $140 million/year, which is both a one-off cost and a fraction of the cost of globally coordinated pandemic control programs such as the "One World, One Health" program, estimated at $1.9 to 3.4 billion per year, recurring (64) . While these programs will not them- selves prevent the emergence of new zoonotic viruses, they will further contribute to pandemic preparedness by enhancing our understanding of viral ecology and the mechanisms of disease emergence and by providing sequences and other insights that reduce the morbidity, mortality, and economic impact of emerging infectious diseases by expediting recognition and intervention.