A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves

Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung

The inferred statistical characteristics of the Covid-19 epidemic are summarized in 988 Table S1 for various regions. The mean recovery time T, is about 13 days for China 989 as a whole. For Wuhan, the city at the epicenter whose hospitals were more 990 overwhelmed and the patients admitted into hospitals more seriously ill than those 991 in other provinces, T ~16 days, while that for Hubei is 14 days. The standard 992 deviation, σ, is found to be around 8 days, with slight difference between that for 993 N(t) and for R(t), with one exception for Hubei outside Wuhan. Such a fine 994 subdivision may not be practical for the data quality we have. The σ tends to be 995 smaller for China as a whole than Wuhan. One can see that T and σ 2 indeed varying 996 approximately in proportion. 997 998 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.