Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . them, two competing policy paradigms could be applied: i) the first in which elderly people are grouped and confined to devoted residential buildings, thus increasing social mixing which enforces within connections and dismisses external relationships; ii) the second in which each elderly person is allocated alone thus limiting both intra and inter connections. Hence, in the first scenario in order to avoid the risk of spreading the contagion within a very fragile and concentrated community, strong social distancing measures with respect external individuals should be put in place. Such measures, if in the form of a strict lockdown applied regardless the age class membership, might have severe economic consequences and disruptive effects on production processes. Our approach thus sheds light on how target policy actions on specific age classes (namely, young and elderly people) can contain the spreading of contagion and keep a sufficient level of workforce at the same time.