Selected article for: "daily number and turning point"
Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: mxen3n0k_58
    Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046177 doi: medRxiv preprint imply that the epidemic has "turned a corner", because the total number of active 314 infected can still be rising with the associated urgent need for additional medical 315 resources, such as hospital beds, isolation wards and ventilators. Furthermore, 316 locating this peak is highly susceptible to data.....
    Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046177 doi: medRxiv preprint imply that the epidemic has "turned a corner", because the total number of active 314 infected can still be rising with the associated urgent need for additional medical 315 resources, such as hospital beds, isolation wards and ventilators. Furthermore, 316 locating this peak is highly susceptible to data glitches and change in diagnostic 317 definition. A more meaningful turning point should be based on the number of 318 confirmed infected individuals, designated as EIC)(15), reaching a peak and then 319 starting to decline. EIC is in theory obtainable from data of the daily number of new 320 confirmed cases, N(t), and the daily number of newly recovered, R(t), by subtracting 321 the accumulated sum of R(t) from the accumulated sum of N(t). Analysis of this 322 accumulated quantity is sensitively affected by accumulation of poorer early data of 323 reported cases, including under-reporting and under-detection of the number of 324

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